Lévy copulae for financial returns

Selecting and estimating regular vine copulae and application to financial returns

Regular vine distributions which constitute a flexible class of multivariate dependence models are discussed. Since multivariate copulae constructed through pair-copula decompositions were introduced to the statistical community, interest in these models has been growing steadily and they are finding successful applications in various fields. Research so far has however been concentrating on so...

Asymmetric Lévy flight in financial ratios.

Because financial crises are characterized by dangerous rare events that occur more frequently than those predicted by models with finite variances, we investigate the underlying stochastic process generating these events. In the 1960s Mandelbrot [Mandelbrot B (1963) J Bus 36:394-419] and Fama [Fama EF (1965) J Bus 38:34-105] proposed a symmetric Lévy probability distribution function (PDF) to ...

Copulae as a new tool in financial modelling

The paper presents an overview of financial applications of copulas. Copulas permit to represent joint distribution functions by splitting the marginal behavior, embedded in the marginal distributions, from the dependence, captured by the copula itself. The splitting proves to be very helpful not only in the modelling phase, but also in the estimation or simulation one. Essentially, it provides...

Appendices for: Search for Financial Returns and Social Security Privatization

Forecasting real estate returns using financial spreads

This paper examines the predictability of real estate asset returns using a number of time series techniques. A vector autoregressive model, which incorporates financial spreads, is able to improve upon the out of sample forecasting performance of univariate time series models at a short forecasting horizon. However, as the forecasting horizon increases, the explanatory power of such models is ...